Dedicated to the proposition that Nancy Boyda is a one termer.

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Deep in the Heart of Texas

Jim Ryun is getting some help from Texas Governor Rick Perry with a fundraiser in Texas.

If you read the article, you'll see the expected back and forth between Jenkins and Ryun on this one. Jenkins claims she will raise most of her money in Kansas and a poke at Ryun for his "jet out of state" to raise money. Ryun counters with his 1100 Kansas contributors so far this year and a reference that he is connected nationally.

My take, Lynn Jenkins is fudging the truth on seeking money primarily from Kansas as she has already signed up for, and received help from the pro-choice WISH list, with donations from as far away as San Francisco on the West Coast and Connecticut on the East. However, so far, an overwhelming majority of her big donors are from Kansas.

Ryun will get tagged with these out of state fundraising trips as being "out of touch" with Kansans. But, at the end of the day, every dollar spends the same regardless of where it came from. The Ryun team has apparently made the calculation that they would rather have the money than worry about the spin.

Having been an interested observer of Kansas politics for some time, there just isn't tons of money to be had in Kansas outside of Johnson County and Wichita. These candidates are going to have to beat the bushes for money.

It will be interesting to see if the two things Ryun is taking hits on, spending so much money last quarter and raising money out of state, come back to help him or hurt him. On raising money out of state, I say take the help if someone is offereing.

The direct mail expense is a bigger question. Ryun raised almost $190K in small (under $200) donations last quarter. Sure, he spent a lot to get them, but if you talk to campaign people, they will tell you that the average small donor will give to you 2-3 more times if they give to you once. So, there's a good chance Ryun will pull in another $500,000 from these new donors between now and the primary. If so, the mail fundraising will look pretty smart and will give him a big advantage over the next year. If not, this spending could have put him in a big hole. Only time will tell.


Anonymous said...

Ryun has to do more national fundraising. His street cred in Kansas is not what it used to be. Kansans are weary of his ability to beat Boyda, it's less likely out-of-staters know of his problems. He can play on his "great American miler" image, too. The folks in Ausitn don't know what a terrible campaign he ran last time.

It will be interesting to see how much he raises with this. Jenkins can probably counter with another fundraiser in JOCO, 60 minutes down the road.

Anonymous said...

He doesn't have to pay for his debt that he is incurring. His fundraiser has to pick up the tab and they just hope they get out of the red eventually.

Anonymous said...

Jenkins has likely tapped out in Johnson County. There are only so many big, moderate Republicans that Steve Cloud can tap in the 3rd District. The question is: where will she raise the $1 million she is going to need to win the primary?

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