Dedicated to the proposition that Nancy Boyda is a one termer.

Monday, February 11, 2008

Take With a Grain of Salt

Please do as the title suggests. From a Republican at the Manhattan Caucus location.

A survey of roughly 1/3rd of the Republicans at this location found the following results:

Ryun 53%
Jenkins 14%
Boyda 7%
Undecided 26%

Why you'd ask Republicans if they'd vote for a Democrat is beyond me, but this is a fairly valid survey size. It shouldn't be discounted, as it is representative of the group as a whole (based on the breakdown of Huckabee versus McCain and the statistical accuracy of those results found on the link).

Also, remember that many Ron Paul voters are anti-war and many McCain voters are actually more independent, so the 7% for Boyda isn't that surprising.


Anonymous said...

Actually, Josh, if Nancy does get 7% of the Republican vote, that's the ballgame.

Hope this holds true.

Anonymous said...

I'd say two things:

1) While it's true that the Republican nominee will not be able to lose 7% of R's to Boyda in the general, a quick look at the primaries/caucuses in other states shows that this is a fairly standard amount. In fact, McCain and Obama are both drawing a decent amount of votes "across the aisle" this year. So, those McCain voters could really be Democrats at heart that chose a Republican ballot to support McCain. And the 7% seems about right. There were probably a similar amount "crossing" to vote for Obama.

2) The real news at this stage is the 39% spread in the Republican primary. That's a massive lead, even in a small sample. If this is indicative of the rest of the district (I have no data to know whether it is or not), at least maybe there is a chance that it won't be a bloody, drawn-out primary. One way or another, Boyda deserves a healthy challenger...because she deserves to be trounced.

Anonymous said...

Wow. Even if Jenkins were to get the traditional chunk of the undecideds (2/3s), the numbers are still Ryun at roughly 61% and Jenkins at roughly 32%.

Anonymous said...

A grain of salt is about right .... remember a couple of things. The caucuses were attended by mostly conservatives as shown in the results of the caucuses. And if they support Ryun so heavily .... he should have received 75-80% of the vote at the caucuses.

Anonymous said...

Who's josh?

Actually, if Boyda only gets 7% of the Republican vote she will lose BIG.

Whoever claimed 7% is good for Boyda doesn't know anything about politics. Anyone who does know about elections will tell you you are doing well to hold 90% of your base.

Republicans outnumber Dems in the Second District by 10%. That's registered voters. Average turnout (Independents tend to stay home more than those registered to a party) makes the advantage closer to 13% of those who show up to vote.

Unless independents break 60-40 for her like they did in 2006 (highly unlikely due to the wave nature of 2006), then she'll need 15-20% of the Republican vote to have a chance.

Anonymous said...

I'm Milo the surveyor for this data. However, that doesn't add any import to my opinion below, but I do closely watch and keep up with events in politics.

I believe the sample I took of those attending the caucus accurately reflects the opinion of those in attendance. However, for someone to imply it even remotely reflects the Republican voters in the Manhattan area little alone the entire 2nd District are likely making a huge leap.

As for the votes for Boyda leading to her election, I wouldn't count on that either. Antidotal comments from Democratic friends, indicate some may vote for a Republican in the 2nd District. I would have loved to have done the same survey at the Democratic Caucus. There may very well have been a similar cross over there. Which Republican they would likely have supported would have been interesting also.

Other antidotal comments made to me during my survey was they hadn't heard much about Jenkins. So even though there was significant support for Ryun, I believe some of it was because of lack of knowledge of Jenkins. I would guess that is likely to change over the next few months.

Having done a significant amount of research during college and other areas of my work, I would caution reading more into the data then what exists.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Milo. The fact that Ryun holds a 39% lead among caucus goers is useful, but certainly not determinative. It shows what I think is a correct current state of the race. If the election were held today, Ryun would win the primary as primary-goers will tend to look much like caucus-goers.

Your anecdotal comments on people knowing little about Jenkins is also telling. Jenkins has twice been elected by the people of Manhattan to be State Treasurer. She's been on TV in both those campaigns as well as in taxpayer funded public service ads. All, with a very positive image of her. She has also been in the race for Congress for 10 months.

all that said, I personally think the primary will tighten. Ryun will likely win as he's closer on the issues to those who will turn out in a primary, but don't look for any 39% victory margins. Anything better than 58-42 for Ryun will be a surprise.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, I think if Ryun wins by more than 10 points I would be surprised. Jenkins has a lot of work to do.

Anonymous said...

The Jenkins LQ ads are not taxpayer funded by the way. As far as Ryun's name ID goes, yes he has 100% name ID, but along with that goes the townhouse scandal, the Delay led CHOMP endorsement, the teapot museum, the Foley lie, etc, etc. The fact that Jenkins got close to the same percentage as McCain in this little poll indicates that normal republicans will vote for Jenkins.

Anonymous said...

I am not a Ryun defender in the least but there was no townhouse scandal and no Foley lie. And I am a Jenkins supporter.

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