Dedicated to the proposition that Nancy Boyda is a one termer.

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Six Reasons

Here are six reasons Nancy Boyda won't win:

1. Say what you will about being a moderate or conservative, a Ryun fan or a Jenkins supporter, either of these two people will be tough to beat. Ryun has a Second District organization, ties to the PAC community in Washington, DC and a good individual fundraising base. Jenkins has won statewide twice, has a positive reputation and will be able to tap into a moderate fundraising base who wants to win a primary. Whoever wins the primary looks like they will have the full backing of the National Republicans.

2. Club for Growth is already targetting Boyda. They can run hundreds of thousands of dollars of independent expenditures and pour in $500,000 to $1,000,000 of individual contributions. Now, the Club is more likely to support Ryun because of his proven conservative record, but they may stay in the race to take out Boyda either way.

3. Pat Roberts is likely to have at least a "B" level challenger in 2008, which means he will work hard to campaign and turn out votes.

4. The Presidential election will turn out the Republican voters who stayed home in 2006.

5. Nancy Boyda is voting like a liberal.

6. Boyda is thin-skinned - not good when the weight of being a top 5 national target comes down on you.

I could come up with 10 reasons, but I wanted to hear from you. What reasons will Boyda lose (and if we could avoid the Ryun/Jenkins back and forth and focus on Boyda, that would be great)?


Anonymous said...

Not bad reasons..not good, but not bad.

1. Jim Ryun got his hat handed to him because he didn't do anything to remind his excellent organization about his achievements...and then blamed over confident volunteers for his loss.

2. Good one, honestly. The money battle will be tough on both sides.

3. Pat Roberts isn't amazingly popular..and, didn't campaign even a minute for Ryun in 2006, when he wasn't opposed at all. He simply WON'T in 2008.

4. Another good one- Dems in Kansas do poorly in Presidential years frequently...unless they don't (i.e. Dennis Moore).

5. Oh! Liberal! Lynn Jenkins is pro-choice and has certainly been regarded with evil eyes by the KRA who will thrash her.

6. Nancy isn't as tough as she should be...but neither is Jim Ryun. I'm not sure that's the sort of problem that will result in her loss.

What might is a unified Republican front...but if the Republicans fracture and run 2, 3, 4 candidates...Nancy will be able to spend all of her time sitting and waiting for the bloodbath to end.

Anonymous said...

i'm the one who posted the first comment..wanted to apologize for misreading point 3- Pat Roberts will, indeed, turn out voters..but his base will be the 1st and 4th, not the 2nd. Some effect on boyda, yes, but not that much.

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