Here are six reasons Nancy Boyda won't win:
1. Say what you will about being a moderate or conservative, a Ryun fan or a Jenkins supporter, either of these two people will be tough to beat. Ryun has a Second District organization, ties to the PAC community in Washington, DC and a good individual fundraising base. Jenkins has won statewide twice, has a positive reputation and will be able to tap into a moderate fundraising base who wants to win a primary. Whoever wins the primary looks like they will have the full backing of the National Republicans.
2. Club for Growth is already targetting Boyda. They can run hundreds of thousands of dollars of independent expenditures and pour in $500,000 to $1,000,000 of individual contributions. Now, the Club is more likely to support Ryun because of his proven conservative record, but they may stay in the race to take out Boyda either way.
3. Pat Roberts is likely to have at least a "B" level challenger in 2008, which means he will work hard to campaign and turn out votes.
4. The Presidential election will turn out the Republican voters who stayed home in 2006.
5. Nancy Boyda is voting like a liberal.
6. Boyda is thin-skinned - not good when the weight of being a top 5 national target comes down on you.
I could come up with 10 reasons, but I wanted to hear from you. What reasons will Boyda lose (and if we could avoid the Ryun/Jenkins back and forth and focus on Boyda, that would be great)?
Dedicated to the proposition that Nancy Boyda is a one termer.