Dedicated to the proposition that Nancy Boyda is a one termer.

Friday, May 25, 2007

More on the Ryun Poll

For those of you who didn't see the polling memo that the Ryun campaign released on the Ryun-Jenkins head to head matchup, here are some more bullet points (warning, this polling memo came from Ryun's pollster, so they are only releasing the most favorable numbers, my comments follow each point):

Name ID - Ryun 92% - Jenkins 41% - My take on this is while Jenkins has a lot of room to go up and Ryun is tapped out, Jenkins just last November was elected to her second term in statewide office.

In Topeka - Ryun 54% - Jenkins 36% - My take on this is that Jenkins was in the legislature from and is best known in Topeka - a place with more moderate Republicans than most places in the district - but she still isn't winning there.

Among those who have a favorable opinion of Jenkins, she leads 50-43% - My take on this is first, a positive for Jenkins, she has room to win if she gets more well known around the district. On the down side for Jenkins, she is only winning by 7% among those who have a favorable opinion of her while Ryun leads 81% to 12% among those who have a favorable opinion of him.

As I said in my previous post, this poll does mean something, particularly as it relates to Ryun's residual favorables among likely Republican voters. In considering the polling memo, it also shows his relative strength with the people who know Lynn Jenkins best. However, 14 months is an eternity in politics and Jenkins has a lot of upside potential. We'll have to wait and see if she can capitalize on that potential.


Anonymous said...

I'm a Ryun supporter but put absolutely no stock in these numbers. Way too early other than to let Ryun know he has a fighter's chance against Jenkins.

Anonymous said...

I think what the point of the post was is that the Jenkins' camp contention that Republicans wouldn't support another Ryun run is wrong if 2/3rds of those with an opinion about the race (12% were undecided) are for Ryun. That's the stock to put in these numbers and it means that it's Ryun's race to lose. Of course, it was his race to lose against Boyda as well.

Anonymous said...

We ran an internal poll asking 542 2nd district likely GOP primary voter as follows:

Do you believe that it wrong for Jim Ryun to accept kickbacks in the form of below market sale of townhouse belonging to bogus profamily group set up by Tom DeLay, funded by Jack Abramoff, and used to launder money for Russian oil companies?

96.1% said that Ryun's actions were wrong. This poll is important because it shows that "not everybody" thinks that Ryun is corrupt (although it's within the margin of error). Clearly this shows that Boyda's and Jenkins' attacks on Ryun's ethics are not universally accepted.

Anonymous said...

Jim Ryun may accurately be described as a lot of things but corrupt isn't one of them. He is a decent, moral and honorable person. I may be voting for Jenkins but I know better than the message put forth by the third post.

Anonymous said...

I'm another Lynn Jenkins supporter but Ryun did not inappropriately profit from a DC townhouse. He purchased a DC office building for slightly below market value and then spent thousands renovating it back into a residence. Let's see him sell the place for a profit in the depressed real estate market of DC.

Anonymous said...

I'm a Jenkins supporter and I resent good honorable men like Tom DeLay and Jack Abramoff being linked to Jim Ryun.

Anonymous said...

Who really cares....Ryun or Jenkins...neither of them can defeat Nancy Boyda.

Anonymous said...

Are you kidding, anyone could be Nancy Boyda

Anonymous said...

You mean anyone except Jim Ryun in 2006.

Anonymous said...

jenkins can be boyda...ryun sure the hell can't

Anonymous said...

Jenkins will trounce Boyda by 10 pts. or more, Ryun will struggle to defeat her.

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