Dedicated to the proposition that Nancy Boyda is a one termer.

Thursday, May 24, 2007

Ryun Poll Shows Wide Lead Over Jenkins

From the Journal World:

Ryun released an internal campaign poll that showed him leading 61 percent to 27 percent among likely Republican voters.

“We are certainly pleased with the results of the poll, but we will not rest on our laurels,” Ryun, of Lawrence, said in a statement.

Good news for Ryun.

The Jenkins camp shot back:

“We’ve yet to see an internal campaign poll done 14 months before an election that matters,” Jenkins’ spokesman Pat Leopold said of the Ryun poll. The party primaries will be in August 2008.

“The most recent poll that mattered was the one taken last November, and Jim Ryun lost,” Leopold said.

The latter statement is true, the former statement isn't. The fact that Ryun is 34% ahead does indeed matter 14 months out, especially because he just lost last November. It means Ryun has held a very large portion of support from Republicans despite losing to Boyda.

Now, as to how much it matters, that is to be seen, and Jenkins indeed has 14 months to prove it doesn't, which is an eternity in politics.


Anonymous said...

"Only a desperate, fading campaign would release internal poll results."

How many times did we hear that last fall?!? Then Ryun flip-flops and releases his poll results this week.

Must be scared.

The only reason to do this would be he's having trouble raising money in Kansas, or is trying to shut the wallets of the mods. My guess would be both.

Anonymous said...

Well, Nancy Boyda was releasing illegitimate poll results done by her campaign consultant (and they were consistently about 10% off, I mean she said she was up 12% the weekend before the election). Ryun's numbers are coming from a well recognized public pollster.

In any event, Ryun has a new campaign manager, consultant and pollster on board, and they are changing strategies. I guarantee it's an attempt to close moderates wallets with a month to go before the next filing deadline.

Anonymous said...

Ryun needed to release bogus poll to boost his credibility. Most of his big donors have turned him down. NRCC is openly criticizing him hoping that he'll drop out. Even senior party leadership have said that he doesn't stand a chance. Ryun is seriously suffering from bad buzz, so he needed a boost.

I disagee that Ryun is trying to close moderate wallets. The truth is that Ryun is desperately trying to maintain control of conservative base. There's another big name rightwing candidate ready to jump into race. Ryun wants to spook off other conservatives.

Anonymous said...

It's not a bogus poll. Please, you Jenkins people need to get a grip (FYI - I haven't decided which way I'm going to vote in this race, I'm a conservative who's disappointed in Ryun's run last year).

The actual buzz is that the NRCC has given Ryun's campaign the seal of approval. They handpicked his general consultant, pollster and campaign manager.

Ryun isn't having trouble raising money.

Ryun is trying to create an aire of inevitability to get Jenkins out of the race. It probably won't work, but it's worth a shot.

There is no big name conservative who can knock Ryun off, but a conservative could take enough votes away from Ryun to give the race to Jenkins (again, sounds like the Jenkins camp is spreading this rumor).

As for senior party leadership, Roberts, Brownback and Tiahrt have expressed support for Ryun.

Anonymous said...

This poll is probably not bogus but it is also exactly as predicted. Good God if Ryun didnt have favorable name rec and approval from Republicans in the 2nd district where he was the Rep for however many years then that would be pathetic.

The most telling thing about this poll is that it shows there is a pulse in the Ryun camp. Looks like he finally has some competence running his campaign.

Anonymous said...

Everybody's talking about another conservative in the race. Who is it? I'm guessing that people are just looking for another conservative. Boyda can absolutely be defeated. Jim Ryun probably isn't best candidate.

Anonymous said...

There was plenty of competence in the last campaign; Ryun just never pulled the trigger. He didn't want to spend any money...not even on yard signs.

He was completely focused on Brownback's Senate seat in 2010. His goal was to have 150000 left in the bank at the November 8, which he just about had anyway. Actually, according to his FCC's he did, but had bills to pay and bonuses to pay his kids.

Which was a fine plan until Oct 12. Ryun was up double digits and then he told Chris Moon,

"I know that only because somebody has mentioned that, too, already," he had said. (TCJ, 10/23/06)

when asked if he knew that Mark Foley lived across the street. (The original story that sank the campaign ran the 13th, but I've seen people complain that there was no direct quote so there it is.)

His numbers swung to double digits down by the 27th. It was the competence of the campaign that brought them back as much as they did.

I don't care for Jeff Black, he was incredibly arrogant, but he and Mark Kelly gained 9 points back in 11 days...and kept Anne Ryun off the campaign trail during the week, probably the smartest thing they did.

And let's not forget the others working on that campaign, Ryun Gilliland, who now works for Brownback, and all Ryun's DC staff members who were out here...all smart and competent, so lay off Ryun's staff and place the blame where it the guy with his name on the ballot.

Anonymous said...

Sure Ryun took a hit over his friendship with Mark Foley ... just like he took hits over DeLay, Abramoff and the townhouse scandal.

But, it's silly to say that he lost because of lived across the street from Foley.

Thirty GOP incumbants were defeated in 2006. It wasn't about anything local. It wasn't about lousy GOP campaigns or strong D campaigns. It all about Bush and Iraq.

The Ryun camp seems to want to make argument that now they have a better campaign strategy and the scandals are behind them, so they are sure to win. That's totally wrong. Ryun is unemployed because he told us we'd have a winning $50 billion war and ended up with a losing $500 billion war. Nothing on that issue has changed ... so there's no way that he will get his job back.

Anonymous said...

Foley living across the street didn't make Ryun lose.

LYING about Foley living across street did.

None of the Reps that participated in the D Street Block Party returned to Washington as Reps.

Does Ryun think this stuff doesn't count two years later?

Anonymous said...

Not all 30 of the Republican Congressmee who were beat lived across the street from Foley.

The D's swept Congress b/c Bush is most unpopular President ever and b/c GOP showed incompetence in Iraq and War on Terror. You cannot make the worst policy decision in US history and expect voters to invite you back for another term.

Anonymous said...

Okay, we know that Ryun is beating Jenkins 61-29. That sounds about right considering it is a poll in a Republican Primary. Jenkins isn't a household name because she is a down ballot office holder.

The real question is - who would be the stronger candidate in the general election against Nancy Boyda. Take a poll of Jenkins/Boyda and Ryun/Boyda - that is a poll that will help make my decision.

Anonymous said...

I agree with the postster that wanted to see a Ryun-Boyda versus Jenkins-Boyda poll. That poll would speak volumes.

Anonymous said...

As a GOP contributor, I would like to see a comparison poll before I decide where my dollars go.

Anonymous said...

I'm sure the Ryun poll included a head to head with Boyda. 269 Republicans surveyed . . . sounds like out of 500ish total survey of the district. The question is, was Ryun at least within the margin of error against Boyda. If so, he'd have little trouble making up that ground. Also, I'd be willing to bet Ryun tested Boyda against Jenkins . . . that number would be interesting to know also.

Anonymous said...

Ryun's poll puts him 17 points behind Boyda in head-to-head.

Anonymous said...

oh i pray it really does put him 17 points behind boyda...but that's crazy talk

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

Actually, I think the Ryun poll has Jenkins down to Boyda by 18, not Ryun. Haven't heard how Ryun/Boyda looks. I heard lower single digits from the buzz in DC, but not sure.

Anonymous said...

If Jenkins is down more to Boyda than Ryun, and by the 10%+ you're saying, than Jenkins should think about getting out and saving us this expensive mess.

Anonymous said...

Obvisously Ryun is worse off against Boyda than Jenkins or he would have released that part of the poll. He could then say he has the best chance of beating Boyda and counter the talk that he can beat Jenkins, but not Boyda. The only reason people still want Jenkins in the race is they think she can beat Boyda and Ryun can't. If Ryun proves he can compete with Boyda then Jenkins goes bye bye.

Anonymous said...

Or Ryun didn't release that part of the poll because he doesn't want Boyda to know how close he is. Remember, she uses her local Topeka general consultant to do polling, and he didn't have any numbers right last year.

And, common sense would dictate if Ryun is 34% up on Jenkins and her name ID is that low, she is farther behind Boyda then Ryun is. But nice try at spin Jeff.

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